A Brief Introduction and A Look at The 2015 PITCHf/x Astros

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A Brief Introduction

Aug 20, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Evan Gattis (11) flips his bat after striking out during the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

When I signed on to Climbing Tal’s Hill, I jotted down a short list of the three most important qualities to bring to my writing. The list above was as far as I got before it descended into trite nothings, so I deleted my later mentions and saved a document with just those three. Here is the reasoning behind each guiding principle:

Be Critical Without Takes

The Houston market is friendly, sometimes too friendly. No player ever got traded to Houston and worried about having to fight off a hostile media when they slumped or said the wrong thing. It is, relative to many baseball markets, a low-expectations, happy-go-lucky crowd.

I would like to bring a more critical eye to things. Smart front offices – and we have one – make mistakes. Fairly frequently, in fact. All managers do the same. Media coverage and fan reaction to the Astros tends to coalesce around two poles: “We’re having a great year, why are you questioning Move X?” on the one hand, or “Here’s the problem with this team: (thing that is barely a problem and at most 5-10% of the issue)”. The dreaded take. I would like to bring nuanced criticism to the table.

Avoid Narratives

I am not a writer by trade. I don’t think the player with his shirt unbuttoned is lazy (sorry, Singleton haters), or that the blue collar grinder is valuable (sorry, Gattis fans). I don’t believe rookies choke in big spots, at least not because they’re rookies. Simply put, narratives are a crutch for guys who think their primary job is to tell a story. To a hammer, everything is a nail, and to a storyteller, everything is a parable. Perhaps that form of writing will appear in this space from time to time, but not in trying to analyze on-field baseball events.

Illuminate

Twitter is where I like to share my random Astros thoughts that are probably garbage. When I write, it’s because I am personally curious about something, and choose to research it to learn more. Then, if I think there’s something worth spending your leisure time on, fellow Astros fan, I put it in blog form and share it. If I can’t illuminate some aspect of being an Astros enthusiast, I won’t write. I promise.

Next: Astros PITCHf/x

Astros PITCHf/x

Aug 25, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Houston Astros first baseman Luis Valbuena (18) hits a two run double in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

With that backdrop, I have recently spent a lot of time diving into the PITCHf/x database for the 2015 Astros. For the uninitiated – and this world of infinite information is still very new to baseball – PITCHf/x is a system that tracks the speed and trajectory of all pitched baseballs, and can be combined with the outcome of those pitches and at-bats to give us a treasure trove of information about the strengths, weaknesses and tendencies of pitchers, hitters and teams. Because all MLB ballparks are outfitted with PITCHf/x cameras, we have a full database for every year going back to 2006.

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What can PITCHf/x tell us about the 2015 Houston Astros? Here are a few interesting findings related to our recent offensive struggles. I will be working these into my writing in more detail in the future:

The Astros struggle – more than most teams – with big velocity

I did a PITCHf/x search for fastballs 93 MPH or harder, and dove into the data. Despite having seen a league-average number of these pitches, and having an above-average run scoring offense overall, the Astros have produced only 237 run-scoring swings (homers, other hits, sacrifice flies, etc.) on fastballs over 93 MPH. Houston ranks 27^th in MLB, and ahead of only Oakland in the American League. The league leaders, the mighty Blue Jays, have 346. The Royals are close behind. For the record, this also might help explain why the Astros won both of those season series: the Jays and Royals are comparatively weak against softer pitching.

The Rangers, with their improved late-inning bullpen built around velocity from both sides, have given the Astros fits late. As have several high-velocity starting pitchers with otherwise shaky results in 2015 (see Santana, Ervin).

The Astros swing in a lot in hitters’ counts

This idea backs up something many fans have noticed: the Astros have a fairly bright green light when ahead in counts, even 3-0.

If you look at the three primary hitters’ counts as a group (3-0, 3-1 and 2-0), the Astros rank 5^thin baseball with 616 swings this season. It’s worth noting that the Cubs, another modern Moneyball-inspired team, leads the league. In an era of depleted offense and strong bullpens, smart teams have begun to migrate away from taking pitches to get starters out of the game and try to build big innings. The new philosophy – for some front offices, anyway – suggests that the possibility of getting a meatball in a hitters’ count strongly encourages a swing in most situations.

On 3-0, the Astros are the free-swinging kings, and it’s not even close. Houston has swung at 39 such pitches this year, with no other team over 31.

Off-speed targets (Holy Valbuena!)

A Brief Introduction

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