The Houston Astros Should Trade for Johnny Cueto

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Jun 26, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher

Johnny Cueto

(47) pitches during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

As we continue our we should/we shouldn’t trade for a starter series, we will not turn our attention to the Cincinnati Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto. No, he is not Johnny Drama from Entourage, he is the ace of the Reds pitching staff. Jonny Cueto has bounced back from some unproductive seasons and injury issues that plagued his early career. Before we spend too much time on Cueto, let’s look at the Astros current situation with their pitching staff and what we can expect the Astros to do.

The Astros have the third best team earned-run average in the American League, with a 3.52 ERA compared to the league average 3.84 ERA. They also have the second-lowest batting average against with a .235 batting average against. As a staff, they have seven shutouts.

The Astros already have an ace in Dallas Keuchel, who is being highly considered for the nod as the starting pitcher for the 2015 All-Star game for the American League. The second best pitcher is probably the emerging star Lance McCullers followed by last year’s breakout Collin McHugh, who is not as effective as his 2014 self. Until Scott Feldman returns, the fourth and fifth starter duties fall to the young phenom Vincent Velasquez and Luhnow’s reclamation project Dan Straily.

Straily is set to make his first start with the Astros tonight, but which version of Straily will we see, the 2013 or 2014 version? He thinks he has found some mechanical things that make him successful earlier in his career, so he could be a big factor down the stretch.

However, with the unknowns in the rotation as well as young pitchers who could be put on an innings limit, the Astros are in the market for a starting pitcher. There are several names that the Astros have been rumored linked to, including Cole Hamels, Cueto, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Samardzija, and many others. Yes, trading for a number one or two starter will be costly, but another ace pitcher could be beneficial.

Next: Johnny Cueto is the Chosen One

Johnny Cueto is the Chosen One

Jun 2, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) follows through a pitch during the third inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Cueto is a starting pitcher born in the Dominican Republic in February of 1986 which makes him 29-years-old. He has seven years of MLB experience, after his debut in 2008 with the Reds. He is in his last year of a five-year $36.2 million contract, so he will be a free agent after the season. He will be a rental pitcher for the 2015 season who Jeff Luhnow would have to woo to stay with Houston.

While I would probably be happy with any of the big three trade targets, looking at what Cueto did last year is an example of a dominating season. Last season with the Reds, Cueto had a 2.25 ERA in 34 games started while striking out 242 batters in 243.2 innings. He won 20 games last year, so he knows how to keep the team in the game. That was the first time in Cueto’s career that he struck out over 200 hitters, so an arm like his could be well-sought after.

This season, he has a 5-5 record with a 2.84 ERA in 15 starts, in which he has struck out 100 hitters in 104.2 innings. This is on a bad Reds team, so imagine what he could do on the high scoring Astros team. Cueto finished second the NL Cy Young award in 2014 losing to some guy named Clayton Kershaw. (Stats from Baseball Reference)

According to FanGraphs, Cueto has a 42.4% groundball rate, a 36.7% flyball rate, and a 1.16 groundball to flyball ratio. His groundball rate is not quite the same as Dallas Keuchel’s 64.5% and 4.27 groundball to flyball ratio, but should play okay at Minute Maid Park.

Cueto lives on the fastball 52.4% of the time which an average speed of 92.5 mph according to FanGraphs. His next two best pitches are his cutter (19.3%, 88.4 mph) and his changeup (17.3%, 83.5 mph). He also has a curveball and slider but does not rely on it too often. His control has also improved this year, as his walk percentage decreased from 6.8% in 2014 to 4.9% in 2015.

He would fit well in the Astros rotation and allow the Astros to save some innings for McCullers for the playoffs. Even though Keuchel would still be the teams ace, Cueto would provide an excellent complement to Keuchel’s pitching style. He appears like a fun loving guy, and could fit into the “Club Astro” atmosphere here.

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The Astros are good earlier than most people thought, and this opportunity to go to the playoffs next year is not guaranteed. The Astros need to bring in a second dominant pitcher to help ensure that the Astros reach the playoffs and create the makings of a great playoff rotation. McHugh and McCullers would round out the rotation, with one if the leagues best bullpens.

Below is a quote from the Cincinnati Reads team website titled, Cueto brilliant amid trade speculation by Mark Sheldon .

“Johnny is special. He’s so strong mentally,” Pena said. “People don’t realize how strong he is mentally. He reads. He watches TV, and he listens. For him to go out there and put everything on the side, and just focus on going out there and doing what he does best, that’s impressive.”- Mark Sheldon.

If the Astros trade for Cueto, they could use some of their financial flexibility to offer him a contract to keep him in Houston.

Next: Possible Package for Cueto

Possible Package for Cueto

Jun 23, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cincinnati Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto (47) looks out onto the field prior to playing the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Originally it was thought that Luhnow would only be willing to trade for a controllable pitcher like Cole Hamels, recently it is believed that Luhnow is looking for a cheaper option than Hamels. In the article As trade season approaches the Astros have a hole in rotation, Evan Drellich states that, “sources say a two- to three-month rental pitcher who will become a free agent this winter, or possibly someone whose contract runs for one more year, is the most likely acquisition for the Astros. In other words, Hamels appears a long shot.”

In the article, Drellich also said that the Reds and Brewers had scouts watching Triple-A Fresno. However, we should not expect any trades from the Reds until after the All-Star game, as they are hosting the event this year. Trading Cueto and/or Aroldis Chapman would be a PR nightmare.

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