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Houston Astros: CTH’s July Trade Deadline Preview

By Eric Huysman |
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May 2, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow waves to the crowd before a game against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to July 2015, which appears to be a busy one for your Houston Astros this year. For the first time in nearly a decade, the Astros are in the playoff hunt and will not be sellers this year. Jeff Luhnow may be treading in unfamiliar waters this year as he is not trying to sell established players for prospects. However, one thing that the Astros have in their favor is that Luhnow seems to have a good method of evaluating prospects and trade targets. We will pretend that the Hank Conger trade didn’t happen.

The one thing that could raise the price for any trade targets for the Astros is that there will be the only teams going after the players. Any team that has holes on their roster will be going after the same players, including the division rivals Texas Rangers and Anaheim Angels. Even though most teams will wait until the end of July to start making deals to give themselves time to decide if the are buyers or sellers.

However, some teams like the Astros could want to get a particular player earlier, so they may prefer to make a deal earlier. The first of July is not the beginning of the trade season, but it is the countdown to the deadline. Jeff Luhnow has probably already laid some framework down for possible trades, as Astros scouts are starting to go look at different players around the league.

We will get Climbing Tal’s Hills trade deadline coverage started by looking at the Astros needs and trade assets below.

  • What needs do the Astros have?
  • What major league pieces do the Astros have available for trades?
  • Which Astros prospects are most likely on the move?

Next: What needs do the Astros have?

What needs do the Astros have?

Jun 30, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher

Dallas Keuchel

(60) walks off the mound after the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The most glaring need could be in the Astros starting rotation. The Astros have somehow maintained a decent team ERA with a rotating rotation thus far. No one has staked a claim to the fifth spot in the rotation, as the Astros have only four starting pitchers on the team. In case you missed it, the Astros demoted Brett Oberholtzer after throwing at Alex Rodriguez in frustration. I wrote about it here; The Astros send a message with Oberholtzer’s demotion.

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Some players who could be up for the fifth spot in the rotation when needed could be Dan Straily, Asher Wojciechowski, Roberto Hernandez, Brady Rodgers, and Brian Buchanan among others until Scott Feldman comes back. There is an outside chance that Michael Feliz could make a start or two, but I think the Astros see him as a power arm out of the bullpen.

The Astros are currently pitching two rookies in the starting rotation in Vincent Velasquez and Lance McCullers Jr. With rookie pitchers, especially ones who made the jump from Double-A to the majors. They both show potential to help in the playoffs this year should the Astros get there, but they both might face an innings limitation this year of under 180 innings or so.

With that all being said, the Astros need to add a top of the rotation type of pitcher to co-anchor the rotation with Dallas Keuchel. The Astros are reaping the benefits of having Keuchel going deep into games as well as his leadership in the rotation. Add a number one or two type pitcher to this already good rotation, and it will greatly increase the odds of winning in the playoffs.

It wouldn’t hurt to add another piece to the bullpen, but it is not a high priority.

Next: What major league pieces do the Astros have available for trades?

What major league pieces do the Astros have available for trades?

Jun 29, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros third base coach

Gary Pettis

(10) congratulates Houston Astros first baseman

Chris Carter

(23) after hitting a home-run in the fifth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

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Last season, the Oakland A’s and Boston Red Sox made one of those rare trades involving a major league star for another star in the Jon Lester for Yoenis Cespedes. I don’t think the Astros would do a trade like that, such as a George Springer for Sonny Gray type of trade. There are some other major league type players that the Astros could afford to lose.

  • Chris Carter – Earlier in the offseason I was so excited about Chris Carter finally finding his swing in the middle of 2014 season. However, he has once again gotten off to a cold start and has not really showed the same bounce back ability. The Astros will wait a few weeks to see what Jon Singleton can offer, and then they might try to trade Carter or Singleton.
  • Marwin Gonzalez – With Jed Lowrie returning soon, the Astros could be able to replenish the farm system with a trade of Gonzalez. Lowrie should be able to offer the same multi-position ability that Gonzalez can. I doubt this happens because he has started to hit recently.
  • Colby Rasmus – But I don’t think the Astros will trade him.
  • Jonathan Villar – Teams have already inquired about him; he could be included in a trade for a team that sees his five-tool potential.
  • L.J. Hoes and Alex Presley – Yes they are in the minor leagues, but they are still major league type players. The Angels and Orioles have already reportedly looked into possible trades for these two (per Evan Drellich).
  • Dan Straily – The Astros have bypassed him several times for a shot in the rotation, so maybe other teams could use him in the rotation.
  • Luis Valbuena – Teams who are desperate for a third baseman could offer the Astros a starting rotation pitcher for Valbuena, after all he does have 19 home runs despite batting .199 for the season. He plays great defense, so a team in need of a third baseman could pursue him if Jed Lowrie proves he can handle the hot corner.

These are the players with major league experience who could be traded away without hurting the overall nucleus of the team.

Next: Which Astros prospects are most likely on the move?

Which Astros prospects are most likely on the move?

Jun 26, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Vincent Velasquez (67) pitches against the New York Yankees in the top of the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

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The Astros have used the past few years of the “process” to accumulate prospects through trades and drafting well. Through this time, Astros fans have paid more  attention to the minor league box scores. Fans have come to admire the prospects, and could be upset if their favorite is traded. Even though Domingo Santana and Jon Singleton are up right now with the Astros, the system has several players who could be ready to play in the big leagues right now.

Luhnow showed in the offseason that he is not afraid to trade a prospect or two if it improves the Astros major league roster. Prospects are unproven until they are able to produce at the major league level. The reason for accumulating a big group of prospects is that it increases your chances of having great players. To trade unproven prospects for proven prospects is a normal thing to do for teams in the hunt for the playoffs. You have to trade talent to get talent.

Let’s take a look at the Astros prospects that other teams will covet the most.

  • Brett Phillips – Mostly every call that Luhnow will receive will start off by asking about the availability of Phillips, who is a five-tool type player who could be an Alex Gordon or Andrew McCutchen type of player. Hopefully, Luhnow will see the value of Phillips and not trade him. Might be included in a Cole Hamels type trade, but I don’t want him to leave.
  • Tony Kemp – With Jose Altuve at second base, teams will be after the top Astros second base prospect Kemp. He will intrigue teams with his ability to score runs and play second and center field. This is a player who could be up with the Astros during the playoffs.
  • Vincent Velasquez – He is still considered a prospect, and his last game versus the Yankees could have opened a few people’s eyes.
  • Domingo Santana – His stock has probably risen with his most recent promotion, proving that he is not the player that donned the Astros uniform last year. He is looking comfortable at the plate, which could cause teams to want him.
  • Mark Appel – The former number one pick needs a change of scenery to jump start his career. He struggled with his first game at Triple-A but still offers top stuff.
  • Anyone from the 2015 draft- With the success of Luhnow and the Astros in the 2015 MLB Draft, many teams will be asking about the top five picks.

There are several other prospects who could be involved but just wanted to list some of the top prospects that other teams will be after. Buckle your seat belts, the rumors are about rule Twitter throughout July.

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