Houston Astros Predictions For the 2015 Season

May 29, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros right fielder George Springer (4) is congratulated by second baseman Jose Altuve (27) after hitting a home run during the seventh inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

For me, the MVP will be Jose Altuve. Last season he showed that he has the tools to be not only one of the best players on the Astros, but one of the best players in baseball. While it’s highly doubtful that he’ll hit .341 again in 2015, something between .300 and .315 could be manageable. Altuve is also a threat on the basepaths, which will help the sluggers hitting behind him to get more pitches to drive out of the park. If the team is to be successful this season, it will all start with Altuve.

Andrew: I’m torn between the safe pick of Altuve on the back of a slightly-less-impressive season than last year and Springer on the basis of a slightly-better-than-is-safe-to-assume season. Let’s go with Altuve, who I can see still getting up around the 200 hit mark and even if he does become our Ichiro (my all-time fav player) in terms of a high average and low power-hitting stats, I still think that steadying presence is exactly what the offense needs. Particularly with the number of strikeouts we are likely to accumulate this season.

Issa: Luis Valbuena. He will continue on his tear from Spring Training and prove to be a significant upgrade at third base. This is a bold prediction, but I really like what he has been doing in an Astros uniform so far. If he can keep his average in the .290 range and hit around 20 home runs, he will be the difference for the Astros this season.

Andy P: George Springer. While the predictions for what type of production George can offer vary greatly, I’m in the ultra positive camp. Springer’s tools and potential rival those at the top of the game. Will he hit for a high average? It’s hard to say, but even at a .270 clip, the power, speed, defensive ability, and early signs of leadership point to team MVP. For the Astros to be successful, his production may the most important cog in the offense.

Brandon: The Houston Astros MVP this year will be George Springer. With a full healthy year, he will not only be the Astros MVP but will garner some AL MVP votes as well. George Springer will play great defense, provide at least 35 home runs, 100 runs and 100 RBI while stealing 20 bases. He will strike out alot but his average won’t be as bad as you think. By year’s end, he will end up between .250-.260 and establish himself as one of the great young players in baseball.

Guess who was picked next?

Ryan: George Springer. I know this is the top pick for most people, but the Summer of Springer is about to be real. He gave us a taste of what we can expect from him last year, and that was with errors in the outfield and not much stealing. Expect him to show why he is a true five-tool player.

Eric: George Springer is a five tool player who could break out in a mini Mike Trout way. He might not have as good of a batting average as Trout has, but he could match him in most other categories. He also could have a Richard Hildalgo-like arm in right field. My prediction is that he will hit .265/ 37 HR/ 85 RBI/ 25 SB.

Thomas: I think it will be Altuve again. It will be hard for him to duplicate 2014, but he’s going to set the table and put pressure on the pitching and defense, which will help Springer and the other guys behind him. He may be overlooked because of the gaudy HR numbers everyone else will get, but that won’t make him any less important.

Brian: I think it has to be George Springer. If the Houston Astros are really going to be a consistently good offense, Springer is the kind of talent that will be the cornerstone.

Kennon: I know the common response would be George Springer. Why not Chris Carter? He made great strides between 2013 and 2014. His strikeouts went down, his batting average went up and he hit more home runs. I expect that his second half was no fluke and his batting average sits in the .250 range with 40 home runs and 110 RBI. This will be a fun season to watch with Carter and Gattis matching each others’ home run pace, but Carter is going to enjoy the best production.

The staff, as I’m guessing most Astros fans have, picked Springer to be the MVP of the team this season. We’re all excited to see what he can do over the course of a full season.

Next: Houston Astros Cy Young

Mar 7, 2015; Kissimmee, FL, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) pitches during the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the New York Yankees at Osceola County Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Astros Cy Young race should come down to two players–Keuchel and McHugh–both of whom had fantastic campaigns in 2014. Keuchel pitched exactly 200 innings last season and held a 2.93 ERA while McHugh held a 2.73 over 154 2/3. I’m giving the nod to Keuchel in 2015 for a few reasons. The first is the most obvious: his beard. Everyone knows that beards like that contain special powers, and that will give him an advantage. Another reason for my selection is that he’s a lefty, which is a built in advantage as well. Finally, he logged more innings last season, so his arm is less likely to get tired do to workload over the course of the season. That sounds counterintuitive doesn’t it?

Of course, the next person went the opposite direction as I did.

Kennon: Collin McHugh finished 2014 with a 7-0 record in the final two months. His impressive 1.93 ERA in August dipped to 1.59 in September. While his second half opponent batting average rose to .215 from a first half mark of .183, Collin drastically reduced his walk rate. Overall his K/9 rate decreased as well, but I do not see why that will not return with increased harnessing of his stuff in 2015.

Eric: Asher Wojciechowski throws strikes, and has shown his bulldog mentality during spring training. With an improved offense, if he can keep his team in games, he could win 15+ in 2015. Is he the most likely? No, but I like his overall game. My prediction is he will win 15 games/ 2.95 ERA/ 151 K.

Thomas: Keuchel will get this. With a better offense and bullpen, he could get close to 20 wins this year.

Ryan: Luke Gregerson: I think Gregerson becomes a shutdown closer in an Astros uniform. Most people go with the starters, and I understand why. But I feel having a lockdown closer is key, and Gregerson will do that this year only blowing four saves the entire season and getting in the 30-40 range for saves.

Well, Ryan’s wrong. Moving on.

Brandon: Dallas Keuchel will be the Houston Astros Cy Young. At this point, he is clearly the best pitcher the Astros have and he is the anchor of a weak staff. He is a very good pitcher but the Astros need to upgrade this part of the team quickly. He will end up with similar numbers as last year. He will prove that he is a good major league pitcher but he is not the ace of a good staff.

Brian: I agree with the others that Keuchel will have a big year. He will have plenty of offensive support and suddenly that outfield looks very stout defensively. I’ll say he tops 15 wins.

Andy P: Collin McHugh. The mystery of Keuchel and McHugh will be the number one story of 2015. Can we assume they duplicate last year? The truth is it will be difficult. McHugh has the best stuff in the rotation, and Keuchel knows pitching better than the others. I’m placing my vote on best stuff this year, and I think Collin McHugh is not a fluke and his curveball will continue to dazzle. As long as he stays healthy McHugh will become the staff ace.

Issa: Dallas Keuchel. Don’t really see anyone in the rotation who can keep up with him yet. I think he’ll be about the same as he was last year, which means he’ll still be the best pitcher on the team. Maybe Colin McHugh will keep it close.

Andrew: Keuchel. I imagine him coming into his own this season and will be looking to bring his ERA down a little after almost cutting it in half from 2013-2014. If he can get down to the 2.50 range, I see no reason he can’t end the season with an even better W/L record.

Next: Breakout Player

Mar 8, 2015; Lakeland, FL, USA; Houston Astros right fielder

(6) at bat against the Detroit Tigers at a spring training baseball game at Joker Marchant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Ok, now this one will be fun. I’ll go last this time to give everyone else their say.

Andrew: Correa. There’s no reason at the moment to expect him to get the call up for a few months, but I’m envisioning a situation where we get hit with a couple of injuries and his arrival is brought forward. Of course, even if he isn’t called up until later in the season, he may still have time to impress enough to win this accolade.

Issa: Jake Marisnick. I love the tweets from the likes of Jon Heyman saying that he’s hearing from scouts that if Marisnick gets his average up to only .260 he’ll be a star. Can’t wait to watch him in center field this season.

Andy P: Evan Gattis. Sure Evan has already been a national story with the Braves, but he hasn’t put that full season together. Getting Gattis away from catching, and being able to platoon him at lf/dh will greatly benefit offensive production. I look for Gattis to thrive batting behind Springer and leading the team in home runs.

Brandon: I believe Correa is one of the top 3 baseball players the Astros have and he should be given an opportunity to show that at the major league level in the second half of the season. However, I do not believe that this organization will promote him (unless he is able to sign a Singleton type deal later in the year). Therefore, my breakout player for this season will Luis Valbuena. I think he will prove that he is a solid major league starting third baseman and give us the kind of dependability, leadership and clutch hitting that reminds people of Bill Spiers.

Ryan: Jake Marisnick. He’s going to prove to be a stable in the outfield for years to come. His glove and speed are a plus, and he’s going to pick up where he left off his rookie year. Could be a great nine-hole hitter leading back to Altuve at the top of the order.

Thomas: Jake Marisnick. Everyone loves his defense. If he puts his bat to good use and uses his speed on the basepaths, he’ll be a very dangerous weapon.

Brian: The breakout player is going to be Wojo. If he can stay healthy, he could be a stabilizing force in the middle of that rotation.

Eric: Jake Marisnick is going to show Astros fans why they to send Jon Singleton down, so Marisnick can patrol center field. He will serve as a second lead-off type hitter, where he and Jose Altuve will team up on many double steals. He will top off with 12 home runs, but will also have 12 triples. George Springer will drive him in many times throughout the year.

Kennon: Can Jeff Luhnow capture lightning in a bottle? His waiver claim of McHugh last offseason paid solid dividends in 2014. While Collin impresses again in 2015, Luhnow’s claim on Will Harris is a stroke of genius. Harris has been up-and-down so far in the majors leagues. Equipped with a solid cut-fastball that nearly mirrors some of the best in the game and a curveball that drops of the table, Harris should be a lethal threat out of the bullpen.

If it were up to me, I’d also say Marisnick, but in the interest of being different, I’m going with Josh Fields. He has the stuff to be the closer, but injuries and some inconsistent play cost him the job last year. His fastball tops out in the mid 90s, while his changeup sits at around 78 mph, according to FanGraphs. Mixing those two should lead to a very successful season for the 29-year old. If Gregerson struggles in the closer’s role this season, as he has in the past, look for a healthy Fields to get a shot as the season progresses.

Next: Houston Astros Least Valuable Player

Mar 16, 2015; Melbourne, FL, USA; Houston Astros catcher

(16) reminds his defense that with 2 runners on there is only one out during the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Space Coast Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

A quick note on these ones: the answers were collected over the past few days, before the official roster was announced. I have put some minor notes in along with their assessments. Let’s start with Eric this time. What do you say, Eric?

Eric: Orbit, I think that his offseason training program was not sufficient in getting him ready for 2015. His arm is not strong enough to throw tee shirts past the 10th row. Just kidding Orbit! The Astros least valuable player will be Roberto Hernandez, as he has not been successful for a while. Just working with Brett Strom will not be enough for him. He will turn into Jerome Williams part II. He will be bounced back between bullpen and rotation until he is released.

You mess with Orbit, you mess with me. Capiche?

Kennon: Matt Dominguez appears to be all but assured to lose his starting job at third base. He turned into an all-or-nothing player in 2014 with few walks and a lot of strikeouts. But the problem is he doesn’t make home run contact enough to sustain a spot on the club. If he doesn’t hit for a decent average in a reduced role, he’s going to be optioned to AAA [editor’s note: he has been] if not released by mid-summer. My second choice would be Samuel Deduno. He’s on the other side of 30 and sooner or later a star pitching prospect or two is going to need a 40-man roster spot. By this time, Deduno is my pick to have been designated for assignment. 

Brian: Jon Singleton is likely to get the call at the first sign of injury to an outfielder or Gattis/Carter. I don’t think he’ll figure it out this year. He’s my least valuable Astro with a sub .220 average in around 300 at-bats.

Thomas: Hank Conger. Still not sure why the Astros traded for him. Will pitch framing have that much of an impact in the win column?

Andrew: Can I saw Luhnow? I can’t help feeling that he got lucky with the Aiken surgery and I remain unconvinced by the LoseNow strategy. If not…let’s go for Evan Gattis failing to live up to expectations, perhaps due to injury issues.

Issa: Hank Conger. I think Stassi will bypass him at the end of the season, making his acquisition worthless. I think Castro will bounce back this season, so he really won’t be competing for the starting gig.

Turns out the Conger trade is not going over well with the staff.

Andy P: Robbie Grossman. If he makes the team [he has], I’m just not sipping his Kool-Aid. Sure he can get on base, but his lack of true baseball tools doesn’t make him exciting to me. A player as streaky as he is needs more tools or power to stay up in the bigs.

Brandon: Singleton. I really hope I am wrong but I do not believe in him as a major league hitter, and I think the Astros gave up far too much with that contract.

Ryan: Scott Feldman: Feldman eventually finds himself out of the rotation by midseason and either goes to the bullpen, or is traded away with Appel, Wojo, Peacock, and others knocking on the door. Hernandez turns out to be a main stay and this is how Appel or Wojo eventually join the rotation.

While I’m not sold on Conger being a huge piece of the puzzle offensively, his defense has proven to be superb in years past. With him, any offense is a bonus so it’ll be hard to make him the Least Valuable Player if he hits his career marks, which aren’t great to begin with. Instead, I’m going to go with Pat Neshek, who I think will have a fine year, but coming off of his career year last season, fans may be expecting too much from the sidewinder. After posting a 1.87 ERA in 67 1/3 innings last season, even a more modest 3.00 ERA would be considered a failure.

In 2012 to 2013, Neshek combined for a 2.70 ERA over 60 innings, 40 1/3 of which were tallied in 2013, when he accumulated a 3.35 ERA (1.37 in 2012). His innings total from last year was his highest mark since 2007 when he pitched 70 1/3 innings for Minnesota and held a 2.94 ERA. The following season his ERA ballooned to 4.73. I’m cautiously optimistic when it comes to Neshek.

Next, the moment you’ve all been waiting for:

Next: Projected AL West Standings

Jun 19, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; A detailed view a of a Seattle Mariners glove and hat before a game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

We may be homers, but none of us picked the Houston Astros to finish in first place this year. Instead of laying out everyone’s projected standings, I took the liberty of taking the average win total for each team and then putting our cumulative standings together. Here’s what we came up with.

What we all agreed upon was that the Rangers would finish last, while almost everyone had the Mariners finishing first. Only two of us had the A’s finishing above .500 this season, so it looks like we’re not buying what Billy Beane is selling this season.

One brave man put along with his predictions that the Houston Astros would finish with 87 wins, and that would be good enough to grab them the second wild card spot in 2015. Most fans are taking the wait and see approach as the season progresses, but somewhere right around our aggregate Astros record is where we hope to see The Hinchmen this season. Only time will tell how right (or utterly wrong) we are. Remember to fill in your predictions in the comment section below!

Next: Houston Astros 25-Man Roster