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Staff Picks: Who Should Be the Astros Opening Day Starter?
Hello and welcome to this week’s edition of Staff Picks, where Astros fans choose their own destiny! Today we will be discussing what brave soul will have to take the mound first in the 2014 season. With just 11 games left in 2013, I don’t think any of you will fault me for looking ahead just a little.
You would think that a team with 100+ losses would be able to choose an Opening Day starter. Surely 1 out of the 7 or so who are competing for the Major League starting rotation would be the clear cut pick, right? While the Astros certainly have talent, none of their pitchers have forced themselves in to that “ace” role quite yet. Let’s take a look at the options for your 2014 Opening Day Starter.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Jordan Lyles is the longest tenured arm on the Astros staff. Let that sink in. Jordan Lyles is 22. He is 9 months older than Mark Appel and he has been around the longest. Lyles has been up and down this year, but has shown signs of being really, really good. Sure, he probably doesn’t have the stuff to “justify being an ace”, but he has been here the longest and that counts for a lot in the Majors.
Lyles certainly has not had the numbers of an ace this year. He will probably finish the season with an ERA north of 5 and a WAR of 0. Still, he has been around longer than any other pitcher on the roster and is still only 22. He has worked hard this year and when he is on, you can see why he was a first round draft pick in 2008.
2014 will be Lyles 4th year with time spent on the Astros Major League roster. Could Bo Porter use that as a good enough reason to run Lyles out on Opening Day?
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Our next candidate is Jarred Cosart. We all remember when he finally got called up and came close to no-hitting the Rays. How great was that? But he didn’t stop there. No, Cosart pitched beautifully over the back half of the season, posting a 1.95 ERA in 60 IP. It wasn’t pretty though, as Cosart walked 35 batters and only struck out 33. Before you write that off and only focus on the ERA, think about what you just read for a second. In 60 innings pitched, Jarred Cosart walked 35 batters. That’s essentially 1 every 6 at-bats. That’s awful! And, to make matters worse, he wasn’t striking out anybody either.
Don’t get me wrong, what Cosart did after the All-Star Break was nothing short of magical. He certainly felt like the ace of the staff and you always felt like the Astros had a chance to win with him on the mound. But don’t get glossy eyed and believe that Cosart is going to cruise through next year like he did this year. Hitters are going to sit back and wait, knowing that they will likely draw walks, which will force him to be a little more aggressive.
All that to say, yes, Jarred Cosart looked like the ace of the staff, especially after Bud Norris was traded. But, his peripherals are scary. And, do you really think that Bo Porter will hand the ball to a 23 year old who is 10 innings above the minimum required to lose “rookie” status (50)?
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
What about Brett Oberholtzer? He’s been on fire since moving to the starting rotation. In fact, he and Cosart have the highest WARs of any pitcher on the Astros this year (1.9 and 2.5, respectively.) To put that in perspective, Bud Norris posted a 1.8 WAR with the Astros in 21 starts. Obie put up 1.9 in 8 starts and 11 appearances. He has been stellar to finish out the year. Does he deserve to be the Opening Day starter?
If your initial reaction was no, maybe you should take a look at his numbers. In 60.1 IP so far this year, Brett has walked 9 batters. Even better, he has struck out 39. That’s more strikeouts and significantly less walks than Cosart. Oberholtzer currently sits at a 2.98 ERA and that includes the 3 appearances out of the bullpen. If you ignore those, he has a 2.38 ERA in 53 innings. Those numbers are very similar to Cosart’s, but Oberholtzer has much better peripherals.
The same argument can be made against Oberholtzer as Cosart, however. Is Bo Porter really going to run out the 23 year old with ~10 starts under his belt on Opening Day, signifying their leadership in the roation?
I don’t know the answer to that question, but you certainly cannot write off Oberholtzer as a candidate for the job. He has pitched too well in 2013 to not at least be in the back of Porter’s mind.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Finally, there is a fourth option. The Astros could make another Erik Bedard-like signing and use him as the Opening Day starter. An established vet would be easy to explain to the media, the fans, and the players, especially in baseball where history and prior accomplishments are valued so highly.
Every year an aging pitcher is let go in light of younger talent, and every year an aging pitcher puts up one of the best years of his career. That would be great for the Astros, but it’s really not even necessary. All that is needed is a veteran guy who can eat innings and provide leadership to the younger pitchers.
If this mystery man came with a track record of success, I see no reason to not start him on Opening Day. That would keep the newly signed vet happy, and it would give the kids one less thing to be upset about.
So, Astros fan, who are you handing the ball to on April 1, 2014 against the Yankees?