Baseball Prospectus v. Me


Many will rank the Houston Astros prospects for the 2011 seasons (honestly, not many, but some) and opinions will undoubtedly differ. As the game of predicting prospects is slightly less scientific than the science of roulette, you can’t classify anyone’s rankings as wrong categorically. I say this not to protect my rankings but to clarify my comparisons are not attempting to illuminate another evaluators possible errors and/or omissions. I also encourage all readers to share their opine in the comments below. I’ve compared mine to FanGraphs‘ and will compare them to Baseball America‘s shortly. But now, it’s Baseball Prospectus on the metaphorical CTH chopping block. Their 2011 prospect rankings for your Astros of Houston (My rank in parentheses): 

Four-Star Prospects
1. Jordan Lyles, RHP (1): Obviously
2. Delino DeShields Jr., 2B/OF (4): Same as FanGraphs, No complaints 

Three-Star Prospects
3. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP (6): Negligible
4. Ariel Ovando, OF (NR): Yet to play pro baseball stateside
5. Jonathan Villar, SS (NR): FanGraphs had him at 10 which I felt was too high
6. Jimmy Paredes, 2B (NR): Has good raw skills but hasn’t translated yet
7. Tannuer Bushue, RHP (5): A little lower than me but a negligible difference
8. J.D. Martinez, OF (2): Same as FanGraphs, I think its low for Houston’s reigning minor league hitter of the year, but I seem to be the minority in that 

Two-Star Prospects
9. Mike Kvasnicka, 3B/OF/C: I’m fine, but a bit higher than my opinion. I’d like to see more at-bats and whether he sticks behind the plate before I’d go top ten
10. Jiovanni Mier, SS (3): This is lower than my ranking obviously, but Mier had a rough 2010
11. Jose Altuve, 2B (9): Negligible 

I also had three players in my top ten that did not appear on that of Baseball Prospectus’:

7. Austin: 13 by Baseball Prospectus (Was 7 on both my list and FanGraphs’)
8. Perdomo: Left out altogether on both lists. Not sure why. Has great stuff and has shown solid results thus far.
10. Keuchel: Left out altogether. I’m higher on him than most.

I find I value likeliness of MLB contribution comparatively more with other scouting lists and raw skills less. Many of my picks and the differences between them and those of my colleagues reflect such. You’ll find Keuchel and Martinez at one end and Ovando, Villar, and Paredes at the other. Whichever side of the plate you stand on, this is the strongest Houston top-prospect list in a long time.