Rumors continue to swirl that Astros could pursue misguided trade of ace before 2025

The coming offseason for the Houston Astros is one that will inevitably involve a lot of change. It is extremely likely that Justin Verlander's time with Houston has come to an end, trade deadline gem Yusei Kikuchi is hitting the open market, and Alex Bregman's foray into free agency has made his future, at best, extremely unclear. Those are significant losses for the Astros to cover in a single offseason under the best of circumstances.

However, Houston is going to be operating under anything but the best of circumstances leading up to the 2025 season. Their farm system isn't as bad as some would lead you to believe, but they are certainly lacking in prospect depth, especially after the Kikuchi trade. The prospects of note they do have are slated for big league roles for Houston in the very near future. Compounding matters is that the Astros' payroll is already looking pretty tight, especially since Astros owner Jim Crane has been stubborn in his refusal to exceed the luxury tax.

As a result, the Astros have been clear that to make a splashy signing this offseason, they are going to have to "be creative" with how they manage their roster and payroll this coming offseason. One proposed idea from Astros beat writer Chandler Rome is for Houston to trade Framber Valdez.

That would be a tragic mistake.

Proposed Framber Valdez trade would solve Astros' payroll woes, but at too high a cost

The logic here isn't completely crazy. Assuming a world where the Astros know that they are not going to be able to sign Valdez to an extension, he is projected to get $17.8 million in arbitration for 2025, which would represent a significant chunk of their payroll. Honestly, it wouldn't be crazy if he got more than that. Valdez would also command a hefty trade return as one of the better pitchers in baseball, and he wouldn't be tied to a complicated and expensive long-term deal.

However, trading Valdez would be incredibly short-sighted. Not only should the Astros be continuing to push to extend Valdez, but losing him for 2025 would put Houston's rotation in a rough spot next season.

There is no guarantee that Kikuchi will return, and even if he did re-sign, Valdez remains the superior pitcher. With Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti still quite young, and all of the other injury issues spread amongst their starters, the Astros would have to be crossing their fingers and toes that Ronel Blanco will be a permanent frontline fixture going forward. That is possible, although far from certain.

Instead, attempting to move one or both of Ryan Pressly or Lance McCullers Jr. are vastly superior cost-cutting moves for the Astros to pursue. Given how much those two are owed in 2025, they will both be significantly harder to trade, especially if Houston wants a meaningful return. However, they are also far more expendable, and wouldn't meaningfully downgrade the Astros' outlook next season like trading Valdez would. Of course, if Pressly's gone, that would mean the Astros would need to seek new solutions to the whole "overworking Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader" issue that helped torpedo their 2024 season. Nothing's easy.

See what you can do before leaping to drastic conclusions. It's all we ask.

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