Projecting a Yusei Kikuchi extension the Astros can actually afford

The Houston Astros got flamed pretty hard for their trade for Yusei Kikuchi at the deadline. It wasn't that acquiring Kikuchi was a bad idea (although there was a chance it could have been). Rather, the animosity came from the price the Astros paid for him, which was seen as crazy high for any rental arm. To be fair, that is probably still true even now, especially with Joey Loperfido doing his thing with the Blue Jays.

That said, it is hard to ignore that Kikuchi has been legitimately good for the Astros since the trade. Thanks to some adjustments with his pitch usage, Kikuchi has seen his numbers improve significantly with Houston, as he posted a 2.89 ERA and 3.60 FIP in his first five starts with the Astros following the trade deadline. His sixth? Seven innings, 12 Ks, one earned run in another dominant showing against the Royals on Saturday night.

Assuming Kikuchi can keep this up and maintain a groove through October, it's fair to start wondering what it would take to keep him around beyond 2024, as he is set to become a free agent this coming offseason. As is often the case, the answer to that question is a little bit complicated.

The Astros can afford to re-sign Yusei Kikuchi assuming the market doesn't get stupid

Unlike a lot of standout players who are hitting free agency for the first time, we actually have some more data on Kikuchi that can be helpful here. Before the 2022 season, Kikuchi signed with the Blue Jays on a three-year, $36 million deal. He was a few years younger, obviously, but his production in Seattle was similar to what he has done since then, which makes that deal a decent starting point.

At 33 years old, anything more than three years on his next deal would be a bad idea, even without much of a history of injury issues. Again, Father Time is undefeated. Contracts have generally gone up since he signed that deal, and he has pitched well with the Astros, but completely discounting his mediocre production in Toronto doesn't seem right, either.

Assuming Kikuchi continues to pitch well and doesn't have any injury issues the rest of the season, a deal that looks something like three years, $48 million could make sense. One of the years could be a team or mutual option, but $16 million a year feels like the ceiling the Astros should offer Kikuchi. That accounts for his age and iffy track record while giving him a raise based on his good work with the team.

Such a deal would be reasonable, especially given what the going rate for quality starters on the open market is these days, and would better justify the lofty price Houston paid to trade for him without completely torching their payroll going forward. Whether or not he would even consider such a deal, or if he could get more somewhere else, remains to be seen.

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