Isaac Paredes shouldn't be considered the Astros' savior at the trade deadline

The Houston Astros' desire for an upgrade at first base is well-documented at this point. The team probably shouldn't expect Jon Singleton to keep his recent pace up and, for whatever reason, the Astros don't think Joey Loperfido is capable of playing first base. With Jose Abreu released, it is finally time for the Astros to address their future at the position.

Most of the "sexy names" at the trade deadline in terms of potential targets for the Astros haven't gone anywhere. Houston was definitely interested in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but most observers now agree that Toronto is extremely unlikely to move him at all at the deadline. Pete Alonso is a pending free agent and the Astros called the Mets asking about him, but he is also probably staying put.

However, the most recent hot name on the trade market for the Astros is the Rays' Isaac Paredes. Paredes has a lot of appeal ,given that he can play multiple positions in the infield, has 25-30 homer power, and draws a ton of walks while not striking out much.

All of that sounds great, but Paredes may not be as perfect a fit for Houston as some are arguing right now.

Isaac Paredes would be a real risk for the Astros at the trade deadline

This isn't a hate piece about Paredes, and if that is what you were looking for, prepare for some disappointment. The Rays have been a better team with him on their roster, and the only reason why Tampa is making him potentially available at the deadline is because their season has gone off the rails and they also happen to have a decent amount of infield depth, especially with Junior Caminero lurking in the minor leagues.

That said, Paredes does have a few red flags as a player. While his swing decisions have been generally great, his ability to impact the ball has been far from consistent. He will turn on pitches to his pull side (hence the home run numbers), but his average exit velocity, expected batting average, and hard hit percentage have graded poorly for the last several years. The guy can clearly hit a bit, but his actual production is questionable (although his profile fits Minute Maid Park very well).

Complicating matters is Paredes' likely price tag. Not only is Paredes one of the few bats of note that is available at all at the deadline, which means he will be in high demand, but he is also under team control through 2027, which is going to carry a premium. The Astros "probably" can put together a package that would almost certainly have to include Jacob Melton to get Paredes, but it would be a painful trade to make.

So should the Astros trade for Paredes? That isn't an easy question to answer, especially since Paredes could also fill the void at third base once Alex Bregman leaves. However, Houston is a very analytics-forward organization, and there are definitely some reasons to believe they might conclude that he may not be actually worth what he would cost to acquire.

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