Framber Valdez’s latest hot stretch could price Astros out of keeping him long-term

Eric Cole

Houston Astros v Texas Rangers / Tim Heitman/GettyImages

Going back to before the 2023 season, the idea of the Houston Astros extending Framber Valdez has been a hot topic. Fresh off being hired, general manager Dana Brown expressed a strong willingness to ink Valdez to a long-term deal, especially after he was able to lock down Cristian Javier.

Obviously that did not happen ... at least, not yet. Valdez isn't a free agent until after the 2025 season, and the two sides haven't been able to come to an agreement on a number that works. Complicating matters is the Astros' payroll, which has been pushed to it's limit and has some bad money on the books. That has made getting a deal done this season particularly problematic.

Now, Houston has another problem on their hands. After a period of inconsistency earlier in the year when basically every member of the Astros' roster was on the struggle bus, Valdez's current hot streak could make him significantly more expensive to keep around.

Framber Valdez's insane summer hot streak could make extending him incredibly pricey for the Astros

Valdez was a bit enigmatic through the first few months of the season, as he dealt with an injury, which compounded struggles with his command. However, he has found another gear since the beginning of July, as he has posted a 2.24 ERA and 2.30 FIP in eight starts with 63 strikeouts and just 14 walks in 52.1 innings of work. He even narrowly missed out on throwing a no-hitter against the Rangers until Corey Seager made other plans.

Just like that, Valdez has re-affirmed his status as one of baseball's best lefties who is poised to hit the open market in his early 30s. Most reasonable experts were projecting Valdez to command something in the realm of $21-22 million a year over five years for his next contract. That was before his most recent dominance, and it is likely he is going to be looking for even more now.

How much more? Well, Carlos Rodon's $27+ million a year from the Yankees is looking more and more like a comparable contract, given their ages and handedness. That could mean that Houston would have to be willing to commit $135+ million over at least five seasons to keep him around. Given their existing financial obligations and the fact that a Kyle Tucker extension still seems to be a priority, that could end up being a bridge too far for Houston, as good as Valdez is.

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Eric Cole

I started my career writing about baseball covering the Atlanta Braves for SB Nation's Talking Chop back in 2015 which has since been renamed Battery Power. After years of writing for those fine folks, I made the decision to take over as Site Expert at House That Hank Built before becoming a full-time MLB Staff Writer for FanSided in 2023. Along the way, I have been a guest on multiple ESPN radio affiliates as well as 680 The Fan and 92.9 The Game to discuss Braves baseball and especially Braves prospects and was a long-time host on the Battery Power podcast. These days, I continue to write about the Braves as well as covering the Astros, Padres, and Angels with particular expertise with minor league coverage, the MLB Draft, and bashing Anthony Rendon when possible. When I am not writing about or talking about baseball (which is seldom), I am an avid baseball card collector (Maddux and Soroka being my primary personal collections) and I also collect shark teeth. All other sports are mostly dead to me as my Bills have broken my heart too many times.