Astros Playoff Odds: Houston emerging as favorite in American League during surge

Eric Cole

Chicago White Sox v Houston Astros / Maria Lysaker/GettyImages

How quickly things can change in just a matter of months. At the end of May, there was no shortage of people that thought that the Houston Astros were dead in the water in 2024. Houston's starting rotation was a mess and ravaged by injuries, the offense was stagnant, and the bullpen was inconsistent at best. It was not a fun time to be an Astros fan. More important, their chances of making the playoffs looked grim, as they had just a 25% shot of winning the division and 36.3% of getting to the postseason at all on May 31.

Things have changed for the better considerably since then. After a torrid stretch where they have gone 42-23 since June 1st (the second most wins in baseball behind Arizona during that span), along with receiving a helping hand from their rivals, the Astros are in a much better spot heading into the closing weeks of the season.

Astros Playoff Odds: Houston's turnaround has them among AL favorites once again

As it turns out, winning a bunch of games while both the Mariners and Rangers have been below .500 since June 1st does wonders for one's playoff aspirations. As of August 19th, Houston currently has a staggering 83.8% chance of winning the AL West and 86.4% odds of making the playoffs when looking at Fangraphs' playoff odds. Baseball-Reference is even more bullish, as they have the Astros with a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs and 90.7% odds of winning the division.

Given how the 2024 season started, that sort of turnaround is nothing short of remarkable. However, it is also a reminder that the Astros can't take anything for granted, as no one thought that they would struggle as much as they did at the start of the season. One ill-timed slump or injury could derail things once again.

However, Houston seems to be well aware of the fragile state of things and is shoring up their roster to protect against it. They have been aggressive in calling up prospects to reinforce the lineup, including the recent promotion of Shay Whitcomb to the big leagues, and it sounds like Houston should be getting back Justin Verlander this week. Assuming everything goes to plan, the Astros appear to be in a strong position once again for another deep postseason run.

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Eric Cole

I started my career writing about baseball covering the Atlanta Braves for SB Nation's Talking Chop back in 2015 which has since been renamed Battery Power. After years of writing for those fine folks, I made the decision to take over as Site Expert at House That Hank Built before becoming a full-time MLB Staff Writer for FanSided in 2023. Along the way, I have been a guest on multiple ESPN radio affiliates as well as 680 The Fan and 92.9 The Game to discuss Braves baseball and especially Braves prospects and was a long-time host on the Battery Power podcast. These days, I continue to write about the Braves as well as covering the Astros, Padres, and Angels with particular expertise with minor league coverage, the MLB Draft, and bashing Anthony Rendon when possible. When I am not writing about or talking about baseball (which is seldom), I am an avid baseball card collector (Maddux and Soroka being my primary personal collections) and I also collect shark teeth. All other sports are mostly dead to me as my Bills have broken my heart too many times.