Astros Playoff Odds: Disastrous September slide puts Houston's October in peril

This isn't looking good.

Eric Cole

Houston Astros v Toronto Blue Jays / Mark Blinch/GettyImages

Coming out of the All-Star break, the Houston Astros' chances of winning the AL West were looking so good. Unfortunately, both the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners got hot after the trade deadline and all of a sudden, the Astros find themselves a game back in the division heading into a crucial homestand with both division foes on the docket. Making the playoffs is no longer a sure thing.

There are less than two weeks remaining in the regular season and the Astros currently occupy the final spot in the AL Wild Card race. Houston, however, is facing a tough schedule and based on how the Astros have been playing of late, their dwindling postseason odds could take a nosedive if this upcoming six-game stretch goes poorly.

Astros playoff odds have dipped significantly since the start of September

According FanGraphs' latest playoff odds, Houston is still favored to make the MLB Postseason. The Astros have a 72.2% chance of making the playoffs with a 29.5% chance of winning the division. The Mariners are a virtual lock at this point, with a 96.4% chance to make to October and a 67.7% chance to win the AL West.

The bad news, however, is that those odds are significantly worse than they were at the beginning of the month when Houston had a 90.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 65.3% of winning the AL West. Texas' odds are hovering right around 30% ahead of their upcoming series against Houston.

The Astros face a number of headwinds in their march towards the postseason. The rest of the schedule is very tough, and even the Cleveland Guardians are making a late-season push to get back into the playoff hunt. Cleveland's odds have grown to 11.2% in the last few days. Houston needs to start winning game, and do so quickly, otherwise, they could be on the outside looking in.

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Eric Cole

I started my career writing about baseball covering the Atlanta Braves for SB Nation's Talking Chop back in 2015 which has since been renamed Battery Power. After years of writing for those fine folks, I made the decision to take over as Site Expert at House That Hank Built before becoming a full-time MLB Staff Writer for FanSided in 2023. Along the way, I have been a guest on multiple ESPN radio affiliates as well as 680 The Fan and 92.9 The Game to discuss Braves baseball and especially Braves prospects and was a long-time host on the Battery Power podcast. These days, I continue to write about the Braves as well as covering the Astros, Padres, and Angels with particular expertise with minor league coverage, the MLB Draft, and bashing Anthony Rendon when possible. When I am not writing about or talking about baseball (which is seldom), I am an avid baseball card collector (Maddux and Soroka being my primary personal collections) and I also collect shark teeth. All other sports are mostly dead to me as my Bills have broken my heart too many times.