Astros must exercise extreme caution regarding possible Justin Verlander reunion

While there were a lot of highs during the 2024 season, one of the more disappointing developments for the Houston Astros this past season was the play of Justin Verlander. There is no denying that he is among the greatest pitchers of his generation, but Verlander's injury-plagued season caused a number of roster headaches during the season, and he didn't exactly impress when he did pitch.

For many, it felt like the likely end of the line for what is a surefire Hall of Fame career, as Verlander looked very much like a 41-year-old with 3,400+ innings on his arm.

While Verlander doesn't want to retire, it felt as though the league may have made that decision for him.

Or at least that is what we thought. According to a report from MLB insider Jon Morosi from the GM meetings this past week, it sounds like the Astros could be entertaining bringing Verlander back for 2025 after all.

The Astros need to be very careful with a potential Justin Verlander return

For the sake of clarity, no one should be critical if Houston brings back Verlander on a cheap deal with a short leash when it comes to playing time. Verlander's experience, expertise, and value to the franchise as a leader make such a move easily worth it. However, things get sticky when you start thinking about Verlander wanting real money and substantial playing time in order to return.

Despite his down and shortened 2024 season where he posted a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts and one of the lowest strikeout rates of his career, Verlander still believes he has "a lot more to give" as a big league pitcher, which definitely doesn't sound like a guy that just wants to take on a mentor or part-time role.

The underlying numbers also tell a troubling tale. Looking at Verlander's Statcast page, his fastball was a bottom 8% performing pitch in MLB last season, which went along with a well below-average whiff rate, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate overall. When you can't miss bats, throw hard, or keep the ball on the ground, bad things are going to happen, and these numbers indicate that the guy just can't keep runs off the board anymore.

Again, one last short-term deal for a few million isn't a problem, and could end up being a bargain if Verlander truly can turn back time one last time. However, the odds are that Verlander's time as a big league pitcher are winding down, and the Astros can't afford to invest significantly in him yet again, especially with their other offseason priorities.

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