3 mistakes Astros could make in December to ruin their 2025 season

The Houston Astros came roaring back to life after a horrendous start in 2024, doing just enough to win their seventh AL West crown in the last eight years. But, thanks to that early-season hole, they won just 88 games - their lowest single-season total (excluding the shortened 2020 campaign) of the era, and were promptly bounced in the Wild Card Round by the Detroit Tigers.

This October marked the first time since 2016 the American League Championship Series didn't feature Houston - a testament to the run they've been on for the better part of a decade. But that window is rapidly closing, if not already shut, and GM Dana Brown is doing everything in his power to pry it open a little bit longer.

With the Winter Meetings kicking off next week in Dallas, a critical stretch of the offseason looms and, if they don't get it right, the Astros could be in a difficult spot for several years to come. Can they bring back a fan favorite? How can they breathe life into the farm system? Questions abound. Let's get started.

3 long-term mistakes Astros can make this December

3. Overextend themselves in years and/or dollars to keep Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman has been a staple in Houston for nine seasons, helping the Astros win two World Series rings and picking up a Silver Slugger, a Gold Glove and a pair of All-Star selections along the way. He, along with Jose Altuve, are the unquestioned faces of the franchise.

Heading into his age-31 season, Bregman is a free agent for the first time in his career and once the Juan Soto sweepstakes concludes, the full scope of his market should start to take shape. Brown has repeatedly stressed the importance of retaining Bregman, calling re-signing his third baseman the team's 'biggest priority'.

With Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and Ryan Pressly all set to hit the open market in a year's time, the once star-studded Astros roster could soon be a shell of what it once was. Losing Bregman this winter and Tucker next would be a major blow to a team that hasn't posted a losing record since 2014 (again, excluding 2020).

A lack of star power is a real thing - and Houston could be in that position without those guys, forced to rely heavily on Altuve in the back half of his 30s, along with slugger Yordan Alvarez. But how far should Brown be willing to go to bring Bregman back? It probably comes down to picking between Tucker and Bregman - but even if the choice is the latter, there are legitimate concerns about what the next decade will look like for the former LSU standout.

In his walk year, Bregman's eye wasn't nearly what it had been prior, with a walk rate that was cut in half and actually fell below league average. His chase, whiff and K rates were all elite - but there were some chinks in the armor. He looked like he was towing an anchor when running (and the metrics bore that out - he ranked in the bottom third of the league in sprint speed). To his credit, though, he was a strong defender, winning the first Gold Glove of his career for his work at the hot corner.

Reports suggest Houston is comfortable with a contract that falls somewhere in the six-year, $156 million range (which would edge out Matt Chapman's six-year, $156 million extension signed with the Giants). His role in the clubhouse and on the field are immeasurable to the Astros, but they've got a ways to go to bridge the rumored gap in Bregman's asking price: a deal worth north of $200 million.

For a team facing a payroll crunch and already looking at ways to move money around to round out the roster, finding an extra $50 million is no small matter. Regardless of how badly they want Bregman back in that clubhouse, though, pushing too far past six years or going north of $200 million has the potential to be a deal that handcuffs the team down the road.

2. Fail to pick up critical bullpen depth to take the heat off Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu

Houston Astros relievers accounted for 555 1/3 innings last season. Three pitchers - Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu - combined for 205 1/3 of them, nearly 40 percent of that total.

Hader was far from perfect in the first year of his record-setting five-year, $95 million contract, posting an ERA over 5.00 in three separate months (March/April, July and September) and finishing the season at a 3.80 mark - a far cry from the 1.28 ERA he carried as an All-Star with the San Diego Padres in 2023.

Abreu was a key piece as well, but his numbers trended in the wrong direction while he set career highs in appearances and innings pitched. His ERA rose from 1.75 to 3.10, although most of his peripheral numbers were in line with his 2023 performance. The right-hander has made over 200 appearances since the start of the 2022 season - the sixth-most in baseball during that stretch.

At age 35, Pressly continued to deliver for the Astros, making 59 appearances and working to a 3.49 ERA in 2024. By eclipsing 50 appearances for the second straight year, his $14 million mutual option for 2025 is now guaranteed - and that's created another dilemma for Brown and the Houston front office.

Given their payroll situation, the Astros are looking for someone to take on Pressly in hopes of unloading that salary and creating a little more financial flexibility. The veteran right-hander is still a reliable bullpen arm, but that price tag is alarming, given the red flags that popped up this year.

His strikeout rate dropped and walk rate climbed. His whiff rate fell sharply and hitters weren't chasing at quite the same level as in the past. The hard truth is this guy has been ridden hard in his career and, while he's played a key role for the Astros during this run, their best bet is to move him and re-invest those dollars in the bullpen, helping lighten the load of Hader and Abreu and, hopefully, allowing both to return to peak form in 2025.

1. Refuse to pick a lane and attempt to walk the line between re-tooling and trying to compete

This, in my opinion, poses the biggest threat to the long-term outlook of the Houston Astros. Trying to keep a foot in each lane, both trying to win now and remain focused on the future is a delicate balancing act that, when it goes wrong, can de-rail a franchise for the better part of a decade.

There are a lot of balls in the air already this offseason that will determine which path Brown and the Astros choose to go down. The unresolved Bregman question will likely be the first domino to fall but, as mentioned, the team faces multiple losses via free agency next winter as well.

Does Houston look to keep Bregman, Tucker and Valdez, opting to run back the same core that was so successful early in their respective careers, or will the club get aggressive, shopping players on expiring contracts in hopes of revamping a farm system that MLB Pipeline ranked dead-last at No. 30 in its August rankings?

Poor contract decisions have put the front office in a corner financially. Giving $64 million to Christian Javier (4.61 FIP since the start of the 2023 season), $58 million to Jose Abreu (who is still on the books for a final $19.5 million in 2025) or $35 million to Lance McCullers Jr. (just 47.2 IP since that extension went into effect in 2022) in recent years hasn't panned out. Frankly, the team is reaching an inflection point where you can't just throw money at the problem to make it go away.

Roster Resource projects the Astros to be at $215 million next season - well below the first CBT threshold of $241 million - but that's also without Bregman on the books. Even if they manage to bring him back on their terms (5/$156) - that pushes their payroll to that $241 million mark, meaning they start paying penalties on every additional dollar spent from there.

The next month should give us plenty of answers in terms of what direction the Houston Astros are heading. It's almost unfathomable to think they'd tear it down and start over, but re-tooling for a year or two to reset the CBT penalties, reload the farm system and get bad money off the books could make this a relatively small bump in the road for a franchise that's been the perfect model of consistency for almost a decade now.

Failing to do so would put them in dangerous waters - and open the door for AL West foes like the Texas Rangers or Seattle Mariners to ascend the throne in the division, leaving the Astros playing catch-up in much the same way they were during the first half of the 2024 season.