Houston Astros: 5 players who could decide the ALDS vs. Mariners

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Framber Valdez of the Astros tips his cap to the fans.

Framber Valdez #59 of the Houston Astros tips hat to the crowd as he set a new Major League Baseball record of 25 straight quality starts against the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park on September 18, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Framber Valdez is pitching in what could be the most important game that determines who wins this ALDS.

Valdez has been worthy of being in the Cy Young discussion. If not for the top vote then at least a top five finish with his remarkable consistency most clearly displayed by his record breaking 25 consecutive quality starts in a single season.

Valdez’s calling card this season has been ground balls and going deep into games, leading the American League in innings pitched at 201.1. It’s also the first time he’s thrown more than 200 innings in a season, a true sign of a workhorse pitcher.

Game one is not a given the Astros will win even though it feels like it with Justin Verlander on the mound. The Astros should only need two runs to win game one and it feels like that should be possible against second year pitcher Logan Gilbert who has thrown well against the Astros this season but considering his counterpart on the mound he would need to be perfect and everything would need to bounce Seattle’s way to win game one.

Valdez however has the tough task of trying to get the Astros to Seattle with a commanding 2-0 lead assuming Verlander does what he’s supposed to do in game one.

Valdez’s opponent is Luis Castillo who just got through throwing 7.1 shut out innings against a Blue Jays team that lead the entire major leagues in batting average and was second in the American League in runs scored.

It’s been no secret that this is the Astros weakest offensive team in their entire Golden Era run. Valdez will have to match Castillo zero for zero and hope Kyle Tucker or Yordan Alvarez can handle a mistake and put it over the fence.

If the Astros lose game two which is a distinct possibility they could go into a Seattle playoff atmosphere that will be tough to win in considering it’s their first time in the post season in 20 years.

The Astros would still have Lance McCullers Jr. vs Robbie Ray in game three. Ray is a pitcher the Astros in the regular season and he didn’t seem to handle the playoff pressure well in Toronto, but it’s still a scary prospect going into a frenzied fan base with the Astros needing a win.

If Valdez wins his start then the Astros almost assuredly win this series. But if Valdez loses the toughest battle of his professional career going against the 100 mph fireballer in Luis Castillo, it could provide an emotional boost the Mariners need to close the series out in Seattle.

Game two may be the most pivotal game of the series and Valdez last year only had one good post season start. Which Valdez shows up this post season remains to be seen.