Astros: 5 Candidates for Regression in 2022

Jose Urquidy – 8-3, 3.62 ERA

Jose Urquidy was solid in his 20 starts in 2021, but some of the underlying metrics indicate that a small regression wouldn’t be a surprise.

Urquidy’s actual batting average against was 26 points lower than the xBA, actual slugging 28 points below the xSLG, wOBA 24 points below xWOBA and his ERA was 0.36 points below the xERA.

While that expected batting average equals the actual league average (.244), it would have been the third worst on the Astros’ staff in 2021 and the slugging percentage would have been second worst on the team.

It may seem like Urquidy has been around forever, but he’s actually only pitched 177 Major League innings, so while he generally outperformed his expected numbers so far, with his relatively few innings at this level a regression wouldn’t be a total shock.