Houston Astros: Examining former players Hall of Fame cases

Several former Houston Astros are on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot this year.

It’s the time of year when fans and baseball writers are fighting like Hatfields and McCoys. That’s right, it’s Baseball Hall of Fame voting season. As the voters slowly and steadily reveal their choices on Twitter, the social media sharks get to rip them apart. There are several former Houston Astros players on the ballot this year, with varying chances to actually gain induction.

The players on the ballot who donned an Astros uniform at some point in their careers are Bobby Abreu, Roger Clemens, LaTroy Hawkins, Jeff Kent, Andy Pettitte, Curt Schilling and Billy Wagner. I’ll discuss each of their cases, whether or not I would vote for them given the opportunity, and what their chances are of actually making it to the 75 percent threshold.

The Conversation

But first I have to address the elephant in the room: steroids. A sizable bloc of voters steadfastly refuse to vote for any player linked to the use of performance enhancing drugs, with some even going so far as to withhold votes for players they suspect of using PEDs, regardless of the existence of any credible evidence. We saw that with Jeff Bagwell’s candidacy.

These voters frequently invoke the character and integrity clause of the voting instructions, which is rather convenient since that clause was largely ignored for decades. It’s hard to argue that players who used PEDs in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when MLB was turning a blind eye to steroid use, shouldn’t be in the same Hall of Fame as Bud Selig, the controversial commissioner who let it all happen.

By these writers’ standards, there are several people already in the Hall of Fame who don’t meet the criteria. For example, Gaylord Perry had a wide reputation for doctoring baseballs. By many accounts, Ty Cobb had quite the violent streak. Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis was responsible for keeping black players out of the major leagues for a long time.

When it comes to PEDs, we simply don’t know for sure who did and didn’t use. I can guarantee there are already players in the Hall who used them, and there are players who took other performance enhancing substances in different eras. You can’t justify your attempts at keeping supposed cheaters out of a Hall of Fame that already houses several of them.

Besides, the Hall of Fame is a museum designed to celebrate the history of the game. You can’t adequately do that if you ignore the best players of an entire era. Keep in mind that players who used PEDs in the steroid era played against other players who were also juicing, so it’s not wrong to compare them to their peers.

Holier-than-thou baseball writers appointing themselves judge, jury and executioner is not the way to do this. If the Hall of Fame won’t police this, the Hall itself will lose legitimacy among fans. Like it or not, PEDs are a part of the history of the game, and shutting out the best players of the era simply because they were doing what the league basically allowed them to do is just wrong.

So with that out of the way, we’ll move along. For the record, if I had a Hall of Fame vote, it would be for Bobby Abreu, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez, Scott Rolen, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa and Billy Wagner. But since I don’t have a vote, I’ll run down each former Astros player on the ballot and what their chances are.

With all due respect to Hawkins, however, I won’t spend time on his candidacy since he has basically no chance. He’s yet to receive a vote on the public ballots thus far, and his career 4.31 ERA in 21 seasons, mostly as a reliever, isn’t going to get him any support. He had a nice career, but he’s not a Hall of Famer.

Bobby Abreu

One of the best all-around players of his era, Bobby Abreu appeared in only 74 games with the Astros at the beginning of his career, hitting .248/.325/.362 with three homers. Then came the expansion draft in November 1997, and the Astros elected to protect Richard Hidalgo and leave Abreu open to the draft. He was selected by Tampa Bay and promptly traded to the Phillies.

While Hidalgo had a couple of excellent seasons in Houston, the team’s decision to choose him over Abreu proved to be the wrong one. Abreu immediately became an impact player in Philadelphia, doing just about everything well. He hit for average, drew plenty of walks, hit a lot of doubles, stole bases, hit home runs and drove in runners. He also won a Gold Glove for good measure.

He totaled 60.2 career WAR, per Baseball-Reference, tallying career marks of .291/.395/.475 with 2,470 hits, 574 doubles, 288 homers, 1,363 RBIs, 400 stolen bases and 1,476 walks. In his prime, which lasted more than a decade, you could always pencil him in for a .300 average, .400 on-base percentage, 40 doubles, 20 homers, 100 RBIs and 25 steals. Not many players could do all that.

The main knock against him is that while he was good at pretty much everything, he never really rose to the level of an MVP-type player. While Abreu received MVP consideration in seven different seasons, his highest finish was 12th. He only made two All-Star teams and won just one Silver Slugger, so he’s lacking in the hardware department.

Still, you don’t come across too many five-tool players like this. His WAR total is higher than Ichiro, Mike Piazza, Vladimir Guerrero and Willie Stargell. His 574 doubles are tied for 25th all time, and he’s one of only two players to have that many doubles, 400 stolen bases, 250 homers and a career batting average of .290 or better. The other is Barry Bonds.

As for his chances, Abreu barely managed to stay on the ballot, appearing on 5.5 percent of ballots last year. This time, in his second year of eligibility, he’s appeared on 15.7 percent of public ballots as of the time of this writing, per Ryan Thibodaux’s tracker. This is a good sign for his candidacy, but if he’s going to make it to Cooperstown, it will take him a few more years.

Roger Clemens

The numbers speak for themselves when it comes to Roger Clemens: 354 wins, 4,672 strikeouts, seven Cy Young awards, 11 All-Star appearances, two pitching Triple Crowns, seven ERA titles and an MVP award. His 139.2 career WAR is eighth all-time and third among pitchers. He’s ninth all-time in wins and third in strikeouts.

With the Astros, Clemens was brilliant for three seasons despite being in his 40s. He went 38-18 with a 2.40 ERA, winning one Cy Young award and leading the league in ERA the next year. From a sheer statistical standpoint, there’s no reason why Clemens shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame, but of course those who vote against him do so for other reasons.

Shortly after his playing career ended, Clemens was named in the Mitchell Report, and his public spat with former trainer Brian McNamee resulted in lawsuits. Clemens was also indicted for lying to Congress, though he was not convicted. Nonetheless, the prevailing opinion is that he did indeed use performance enhancing drugs, likely beginning with his stint in Toronto in 1997 and 1998.

More of his dirty laundry was aired in the form of some extramarital affairs, most notably with country singer Mindy McCready, which may have began when she was underage. That indiscretion is held against him by some voters as well, so although his on-field career is certainly worthy, it’s all the other baggage that’s holding his candidacy back.

Clemens was named on only 37.6 percent of ballots in 2013, his first year of eligibility. He’s trended upward since then, reaching 61 percent in 2020. So far this year, the latest numbers have him named on 72.2 percent of public ballots. That number will likely be lower among private ballots, so he seems unlikely to make it this year.

Clemens will only have one year of eligibility remaining if he doesn’t get in this year, so it’s going to be an interesting case to follow next year. His fate is tied closely with that of Bonds, both of whom would be on their last chances in 2022. I firmly believe they should both be in the Hall of Fame, but whether they will make it may be a different story entirely.

Jeff Kent

Jeff Kent‘s candidacy is an interesting case. He’s in his eighth year of eligibility, but 2020 was the first time he surpassed the 20 percent mark. So far this year, he’s been named on 24.3 percent of public ballots, so it’s not shaping up too well for him. I personally wouldn’t vote for him, but there is at least a legitimate debate to be had here.

Most of that centers around the fact that he’s arguably the greatest-hitting second baseman of all time. His 55.4 career WAR mark is solid, and he was a five-time All Star and won the MVP award in 2000. He has good stats — 2,461 hits, 560 doubles, 377 homers, 1,518 RBIs and a career slash line of .290/.356/.500 over 17 seasons.

Kent was a key contributor in two seasons with the Astros, totaling a .293/.350/.521 line with 49 homers and 200 RBIs. He provided a middle-of-the-order bat at a position that isn’t really known for it, so he was something of a novelty. He wasn’t flashy, but he was incredibly consistent.

The knocks on him are that he wasn’t a particularly strong defender and he wasn’t much of a stolen base threat. If he had played a different position — say third base, for instance — would he be getting the same support? There’s a case to be made that he’s more of a “Hall of Very Good” player than a Hall of Fame one.

The voting seems to bear that out. He’s already in his eighth year of eligibility, so he’s running out of time. Unless there’s some kind of a miraculous push over the next two years, it looks unlikely that Kent will make the Hall of Fame.

Curt Schilling

This may be the most controversial case right now. Curt Schilling was only briefly with the Astros, pitching out of the bullpen in 1991 before being traded to the Phillies, where he would break out. He is, in my humble opinion, a bona fide Hall of Fame pitcher when you look at his numbers. But of course the numbers aren’t the only thing people take into consideration.

Schilling’s 3,116 strikeouts are 15th all-time, and that 3,000 strikeout plateau is a traditional barometer for the Hall of Fame. His 216 career wins aren’t overly impressive, but that statistic doesn’t matter quite as much as it used to. His career 3.46 ERA is solid, and he is eighth all-time in strikeout-to-walk ratio, and in fact led the league in that statistic five times.

He was a six-time All Star, and though he never won a Cy Young award, he was a runner-up in the voting on three different occasions. His postseason resume is incredible, with a career 11-2 record and 2.23 ERA, and his bloody sock game in the 2004 ALCS is the stuff of legend. He was the rare power pitcher with pinpoint command, and he was at his best when the stakes were highest.

Schilling has not been linked to PED use, but many voters still won’t vote for him for character reasons. Since his retirement, he’s been outspoken about his right-wing politics, which in and of itself should not be disqualifying. But he has stepped over the line with some of his comments and social media posts, most notably involving a tweet about a t-shirt that advocated for the lynching of journalists.

That one incident alone is enough for many writers to withhold their vote, or at least think twice about it. Still, after appearing on only 29.2 percent of ballots in 2014, Schilling was up to 70 percent in 2020. So far this year, he’s been named on 71.3 percent of public ballots, and he’s on his ninth year of eligibility, so it’s going to be close.

Personally I don’t think his post-career comments should matter, especially when you consider some of the unsavory characters that are already in the Hall of Fame. His career is worthy, and I don’t think there’s a legitimate case to be made otherwise. But time will tell.

Billy Wagner

Of all the players on this list, Billy Wagner is probably the only one who would be wearing an Astros cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. For that reason, and because of his sheer dominance, many Houston fans are rallying behind his candidacy. I’m of the belief that he’s the best left-handed reliever of all time and quite possibly the second-best relief pitcher ever.

Wagner’s 422 saves are sixth all-time, which is an impressive total but not necessarily a transcendent number. His case is better illustrated by comparing him to Trevor Hoffman, who’s already in the Hall of Fame. Hoffman’s 601 saves are second only to Mariano Rivera, but Wagner has him beat in almost every other category.

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Wagner is better than Hoffman in ERA (2.31 vs 2.87), WHIP (0.998 vs 1.058), hits per nine (6.0 vs 7.0), strikeouts per nine (11.9 vs 9.4), adjusted ERA (187 vs 141), FIP (2.73 vs 3.08) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.99 vs 3.69). In fact, Wagner struck out more batters than Hoffman (1196 vs 1133) despite pitching 186.1 fewer innings.

Hoffman’s more impressive save total is the reason he’s in Cooperstown, but Wagner was simply the better pitcher. In fact, Wagner’s stats aside from the saves are closer to Rivera’s than Hoffman’s. By that standard, Wagner should absolutely be in the Hall of Fame, and considering he pitched nine of his 16 major league seasons with the Astros, he holds a special place in the hearts of Houston fans.

His candidacy got off to a slow start, but he’s making gains. After hovering in the 10-11 percent range his first three years, he jumped to 16.7 percent in 2019 and 31.7 percent in 2020. So far this year, he’s appeared on 48.7 percent of public ballots, so it looks to be another step forward for him. With four years of eligibility remaining after this, his support is quickly growing, so he has a legitimate chance to eventually make the Hall of Fame.