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Houston Astros: 2016 ZiPS Projections

By Colin Gay

Oct 6, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; The Houston Astros celebrate after defeating the New York Yankees in the American League Wild Card playoff baseball game at Yankee Stadium. Houston won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 6, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; The Houston Astros celebrate after defeating the New York Yankees in the American League Wild Card playoff baseball game at Yankee Stadium. Houston won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports /
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What are these ZiPS Projections, and how do They Help Astros Fans Project the 2016 Season? 

Jun 18, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; LSU Tigers infielder  (8) throwd across his body to make an out against the TCU Horned Frogs in the fourth inning in the 2015 College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 18, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; LSU Tigers infielder  (8) throwd across his body to make an out against the TCU Horned Frogs in the fourth inning in the 2015 College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports /

As the winter deals are dying down (we think), the focus of the baseball community turns towards Spring Training 2016. In this time, fans love to look through projections to figure out how their particular team will do in the upcoming year before it happens.

Created by Dan Szymborkski, ZiPS, which stands for the sZymborski Projection System, is the new fad in projection data put out by Fan Graphs that analyzes the potential of every MLB team. Szymborski uses his own calculation on Wins Above Replacement (zWAR) and other stats based on position to predict how a particular player will do this next season. Last week, it was the Astros turn as their ZiPS projections were released.

Before we get into the data put out by these projections, ZiPS are, according to a description by Fan Graphs, “computer based projections of performance”. Even though many of the players listed will not make it to the big league level in 2016, the projections for these players are based on what they would do at the big league level.

So, many of these Astros listed, like Alex Bregman or Derek Fisher, with Major League projections attached to them, may exceed those numbers based on what level they will be in in the minors. Also, the statistics of players who are injured or are out for a significant amount of time during the season is not calculated. With all of the logistics explained, here is how the Astros faired.

Next: Astros Offense Projections

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