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Will the Astros Make the Post-Season in 2015?

By Eric Huysman

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The Astros won their eighth game in a row on Friday night, and send their second best pitcher to mound on Saturday against the Mariners. The Astros have an eight-game winning streak for the first time since 2008 and have their best record to start the season since 1980. The 1980 Astros finished 93-70 and 1st in the NL West. They ended up losing in the NL Championship Series to the Phillies three games to two. This 1980 team, like its 2015 counterpart relied on pitching and timely hitting.

While I was live Tweeting the game, the Astros TV announcers started talking about the Astros chances of making the post-season in 2015. The announcers gave the odds of each team in the AL West making the playoffs from Baseball Prospectus. It reminded me of something Harold Reynolds said on MLB Network, about how the Astros will not keep this pace up to compete. He still predicts that the Seattle Mariners will win the division with the Angels finishing second. Has he been watching any Astros games lately?

Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds AL West

Baseball Prospectus has the Astros finishing second in the AL West with 83 wins and 79 loses. Finishing second will be significant progress towards the Astros once again becoming competitive in baseball. The Mariners are expected to finish right behind the Astros. If this prediction is correct, then the Angels will claim the division title and the Astros could be fighting for a wild card slot. So let’s look to see if the Astros could be in the AL wild card race. (Update: The site was updated; the Angels go down to a 54.2% chance and the Astros rise to 45.3% chance of making the playoffs)

Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds AL West Possible Wild-Card Teams

Tampa Bay Rays: 57%

Houston Astros: 42%

Seatle Mariners: 37%

New York Yankees: 36%

Even if the Astros don’t hold the claim on first place at the end of the season, they could still be potentially in the mix for the wild card game. This would shock all of baseball, as it is much earlier than the 2017 playoff run predicted by Sports Illustrated. For the Astros to do this, they must continue to pitch at the level that they are pitching at now, and the Astros offense must be more consistent at the plate. Before we can even talk playoffs, we must understand that Luhnow migh make a trade to sure up the rotation or any other need for the stretch drive. If Astros fans were upset about the Astros trading away prospects in the Evan Gattis trade, imagine the haul that the Phillies would require for Cole Hamels?

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The Astros currently have a six-game lead over the Angels and the rest of the AL West. They are the hottest team in baseball right now. It’s still too early to think playoffs yet. Many people feel like the Astros are pretenders so far. However, the baseball season is so long, that it normally weeds out the pretenders. Astros fans are excited now because after years of their home team losing, they are winning. If the Astros start showing holes in their armor, expect some of the prospects we value be traded for players needed to win now. Some people in the industry believe that the Astros shouldn’t have stopped the “process” so soon, but Luhnow was probably under pressure to win, so he added some veteran players.

Some people in the industry believe that the Astros shouldn’t have stopped the “process” so soon. Luhnow was probably under pressure to win, so he added some veteran players. Luhnow has stated that part of the reason they have stockpiled top prospects was to be able to trade for the impact player if needed. Will he cash in this year to make a playoff run? We need to wait till after May to get a better gauge on this team. The next thing to discuss is whether Carlos Correa will be part of the stretch drive this year? Issa will do that later today.

Can the Astros make the playoffs? What are your thoughts?

Next: Jose Altuve is Unbelievable

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