There are simply too many other options on the ballot, and voters are hamstrung with the limit of ten players that they can vote for. The other issue, is that Bagwell is still dealing with some steroid rumblings, and also has too far to climb.
The good thing for Bagwell is that in his first year of eligibility, he received 59.6% of the votes. With a debut like that, it is likely a foregone conclusion that he will get elected, eventually. I just think it will happen in 2015. Per the running total on Astros County, Bagwell currently sits at 65%, or 10% short of induction.
Based on his WAR (Wins Above Replacement Value), Bagwell’s election really should be a foregone conclusion. On his career, Bagwell has a WAR of 79.5 or 63rd all time.
Aside from his broken hand issues in the mid-90′s, Bagwell was a very durable player until the end of his career. The first baseman was a career .297 hitter while adding 449 home runs and 1,529 RBI’s while playing a pretty good defensive first base.
Ultimately, I’m not sure that his vote totals will fluctuate by much from last year to this year. There will be some writers that vote for Bagwell after leaving him off their ballots last year as some form of protest. However, there will be others that are unable to vote for the former Killer B due to the lack of room on their ballot.
This will likely set up back to back years where Houston will be represented on the induction stage.