The Brett Myers Trade Market


While Wandy Rodriguez seems to have a growing trade market as Brian noted yesterday, Brett Myers is a different case. Myers burst on the Houston scene with a great 2010 campagin posting a career low era. While the era was very impressive, the one category that made him stand out on another level was his innings pitched. Coming off an injury with the Phillies, Myers was not expected to be able to provide the durablity he showed. The problem was his 2011 season which saw him regress in most catagories and himself regress back to his mean. Along with his numbers regressing so did his trade value and during a time where the Astros are looking to move veterans, that is a very bad thing.

So the Astros must ask themselves, and obviously the league, what is Brett Myers’ trade value? At the 2010 trade deadline, Myers received a ton of attention as many contenders looked at him as a possible quality inning eater. The Astros decided to hold on to Myers and even reward him with a longer term deal. At the time, it felt like a mistake and as 2011 developed, it felt even more like the wrong move had been made. Due to his decline in production, along with increased salary, Myers did not recieve nearly the same amount of attention at the 2011 trade deadline. With new management in place, the mistakes of the prior regime should not be their concern but rather how to move Myers while getting some value back.

Myers will be paid 11 million this season which is a problem but to compound the issue, he is also due 10 million dollars next season with a 3 million dollar buyout. The buyout is nice and would allow whoever he pitches for major savings but the 11 million dollar price tag for 2012 will be a hard sell. It was reported that the Astros were shopping Myers at the winter meetings so the interest to move Myers is obvious but the Astros must ask how much are they willing to eat and what kind of prospects they want in return? The Red Sox were linked to Myers earlier in the Fall but seem to have moved on to Gio Gonzalez and Wandy Rodriguez. It would seem any team looking for an inning eater would look at Myers but request the Astros to pay some of his possible 14 million remaining on his contract. The Astros have been reported to be willing to eat half of his salary which might help but if they wish to get a nice propsect, it might take more.

It certainly appears the Astros will move Myers before his contract expires and they would like something of value in return. The Astros could wait until the 2012 trade deadline in hope of increasing his value but there is also the risk he could continue to decline and lose whatever is left. Obviously a lot of risk is involved in waiting so odds are that Brett Myers has seen his last game in an Astros’ uniform so lets see what Jeff Luhnow can create in his laboratory.

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Tags: Boston Red Sox Brett Myers Gio Gonzalez Houston Astros Jeff Luhnow Philadelphia Phillies Wandy Rodriguez

  • BHam2421

    Great job, Alex. In my opinion, the Astros would be best served to hold onto Myers until the trade deadline and hope that he posts numbers closer to 2010 than 2011. If this happens, his trade value will no doubt increase, if it doesn’t happen, then his trade value stays the same. I just don’t think its worth throwing him away for fringe minor leaguers when we don’t really have many options to replace him. He will definitely eat up 200 innings this year and on a team with very little depth at the SP position, that could be a huge plus.

  • BHam2421

    Great job, Alex. In my opinion, the Astros would be best served to hold onto Myers until the trade deadline and hope that he posts numbers closer to 2010 than 2011. If this happens, his trade value will no doubt increase, if it doesn’t happen, then his trade value stays the same. I just don’t think its worth throwing him away for fringe minor leaguers when we don’t really have many options to replace him. He will definitely eat up 200 innings this year and on a team with very little depth at the SP position, that could be a huge plus.

    • Its Gonna Happen

      @BHam2421 i couldnt agree more. his trade value right now couldnt be any worse than what it already is and there is a good chance he will bounce back a little next season. for a guy that can eat 200 innings on a team with a lot of young pitchers, he’s got value. But, to a team that’s trying to compete, he’s a 5th starter they throw out to give the important arms in the bullpen a day off. Teams don’t pay a fifth starter 10+ million a year. They definately don’t trade away any prospects worth a dam to get said player. No, the only thing to do is let him play and hope he returns to his 2010 form. trading him now doesnt help the team any.

      • LEXthePEX

        @Its Gonna Happen@BHam2421 While I tend to agree with both you, I think the Stros may view this as their oppurtunity to move Brett without losing more value. The market is pitching starved and seeing guys like Capuano and Harang sign 6/7 million per year deals makes me believe he can be moved for same amount. I think he could increase value but last season is probably the real Myers, numbers are more in order to what he’s done in the past. Not sure what to expect back, that’ll depend on Luhnow.

        • Its Gonna Happen

          @LEXthePEX @BHam2421 i just cant see him bringing back anything worthy of losing those 200 innings he brings. I understand its important for them to cut payroll but they could be making a serious mistake by selling low on him.

  • Its Gonna Happen

    @BHam2421 i couldnt agree more. his trade value right now couldnt be any worse than what it already is and there is a good chance he will bounce back a little next season. for a guy that can eat 200 innings on a team with a lot of young pitchers, he’s got value. But, to a team that’s trying to compete, he’s a 5th starter they throw out to give the important arms in the bullpen a day off. Teams don’t pay a fifth starter 10+ million a year. They definately don’t trade away any prospects worth a dam to get said player. No, the only thing to do is let him play and hope he returns to his 2010 form. trading him now doesnt help the team any.

  • LEXthePEX

    @Its Gonna Happen@BHam2421 While I tend to agree with both you, I think the Stros may view this as their oppurtunity to move Brett without losing more value. The market is pitching starved and seeing guys like Capuano and Harang sign 6/7 million per year deals makes me believe he can be moved for same amount. I think he could increase value but last season is probably the real Myers, numbers are more in order to what he’s done in the past. Not sure what to expect back, that’ll depend on Luhnow.

  • Its Gonna Happen

    @LEXthePEX @BHam2421 i just cant see him bringing back anything worthy of losing those 200 innings he brings. I understand its important for them to cut payroll but they could be making a serious mistake by selling low on him.